Fujifilm X-Pro4 – FUJI X WEEKLY (2024)

I get asked somewhat regularly when I think the X-Pro4 camera will be announced, or if it will ever come. It’s long overdue. Some folks are even losing hope, believing that Fujifilm has abandoned the line altogether. I often see questions like: When will the next X-Pro come? What will be different about it? Was the X-Pro3 the last iteration?

The X-Pro1 is a historically significant camera. It was the first interchangeable-lens X-series model, and the first X-Trans camera. Fujifilm’s success in the digital camera world hinged on this one model. If it flopped, there would not likely be any X or GFX cameras being manufactured today. The X-series would be a forgotten footnote, like Samsung’s NX line. However, the camera was a success, and the rest is history, as they say.

The lifecycle of the X-Pro series has been pretty consistent. The X-Pro1 was announced in early 2012. Exactly four years later, the X-Pro2 was announced. The X-Pro3 came just a smidge early, in fall 2019 (instead of early 2020). If this pattern continued, the next X-Pro—presumably called X-Pro4, or maybe X-Pro5 since the number four is considered unlucky in Japan (sometimes, but not always, Fujifilm skips it)— should have come out either in fall of 2023 or first quarter of 2024. Obviously it didn’t. And there’s not been any indication that it is coming soon, either. The X-Pro4 is now long overdue, and seemingly abandoned. An X-Pro4 in 2024 would have made a lot of sense, as would an X-Pro5 in 2025 (assuming they skip the number four).

In my opinion, camera makers refresh camera lines much too quickly. A four-year cycle should be pretty normal, and some models should take longer than that. I don’t have a problem with the next X-Pro coming out five or even six years since the last. I do wish that the X-Pro3 hadn’t been discontinued. I can’t say for sure, but its discontinuation was likely due to the ribbon wiring harness to the rear screen not being reliable enough, which caused problems for some X-Pro3 owners. The backwards rear screen was a bold experiment that I applaud Fujifilm for having the guts to try, but ultimately I think it was a bust. Between the screen issues and so-so sales after the initial demand faded, I think Fujifilm felt the X-Pro3 had run its course after three years.

Just to be clear, I have no inside information. Sometimes people assume that I do, but I don’t. I get my information the same way that you do. All I have are guesses. Please take this article with a grain of salt.

I believe that Fujifilm is currently developing the next X-Pro camera right now. I don’t know if they’re at the beginning stages or near the end or somewhere in-between (probably somewhere in-between). It’s possible that a few people already have their hands on a prototype, I don’t know. But I do have a lot of confidence that the work has begun on the camera and it is somewhere on the path to becoming a reality. There will be an X-Pro4 (or maybe called X-Pro5) in the future, I’m 99.9% sure of it.

When exactly the camera comes out and what will be different about it is something I don’t know. Back in 2023 I speculated that it was likely to be released in 2024. Earlier this year I speculated that it was likely fall of 2024, or maybe spring 2025 at the latest. Obviously I was wrong about those dates. Some speculation that I’m mildly confident will prove to be true: the next X-Pro iteration won’t be X-Trans V, but X-Trans VI.

Fujifilm introduced the world to X-Trans technology with the X-Pro1. The X-Trans I sensor was fairly short lived (only the X-Pro1, X-E1, and X-M1 cameras had it… the X-M1 paired the sensor with the X-Trans II processor). The X-Pro series completely skipped over the X-Trans II sensor. Fujifilm introduced the X-Trans III sensor with the X-Pro2. The X-Pro3 was the third X-Trans IV camera; however, they introduced Classic Negative, Grain size, Color Chrome FX Blue, and Clarity with it. My guess is that—like X-Trans II—Fujifilm will skip X-Trans V and go straight for X-Trans VI, introducing that sensor with the next X-Pro camera.

I don’t know what will differentiate X-Trans VI from X-Trans V, but my guess is speed and efficiency. Probably not megapixels. I suspect that Fujifilm will look to improve autofocus, frame rates, sensor readout, heat dispersion, and things like that, with the next X-Trans sensor. Most of these improvements are unlikely to significantly impact an X-Pro model due to how people typically use these cameras, but I’m sure they will be welcomed nonetheless—especially if the Clarity pause can (finally) be shortened. Fujifilm might (should, in my opinion) introduce a new Film Simulation—Fortia? XPro (cross-process)? Natura? PRO Neg H (looks like 400H and turns pastel with overexposure)?—and maybe a new JPEG tool or two (faded shadows? split toning? Medium Grain strength and size? mid-tone boost? half-step WB Shift?) with the X-Pro4. Increasing the number of Custom Settings presets from 7 to 10 (or more) would be celebrated. The XPan aspect ratio is a must, I think. There’s plenty that Fujifilm could do.

But there’s also plenty that Fujifilm shouldn’t do. I will be mildly surprised if the X-Pro4 has a backwards screen like the X-Pro3 (my guess is that it will be more like the X100VI and X-T5); otherwise, the less they change the better. Look at the feedback from the X-Pro2 and X-Pro3, and change as little as possible. In my opinion, the best X-Pro iteration was the Fujifilm X-Pro2, so if the upcoming X-Pro is more like it I certainly won’t complain.

My guess is that the X-Pro4 (maybe called X-Pro5) will be announced either in September/October of 2025 or (more likely) the first quarter of 2026. Prior to its announcement, I would expect that Fujifilm will release an X-E5 (the X-E series is almost always released at the end of a sensor generation) and maybe an X-T30 III. Both of those will likely have an X-Trans IV sensor paired with the X-Trans V processor (although it is certainly possible that the X-E5 will get the 40mp X-Trans V sensor). I wouldn’t be surprised to see another model, such as the 1″ sensor camera that’s been rumored, also announced in 2025. My best guess—and remember, it’s just a guess—is that the next X-Pro, along with the X-Trans VI sensor, will arrive in early 2026, approximately 15 to 16 months from now. I know a lot of people are looking forward to it, and it will surely eventually happen, but I think it’s still a little ways out.

Fujifilm will announce three upcoming cameras in the first part of 2024. Fujirumors is reporting what the second upcoming Fujifilm camera will be. We already know what the first one will be, so now the first two are known. There will be a third camera announced, which we don’t know anything about, and we’ll get to that in a moment.

The first upcoming camera will be the X100V successor, which has been rumored for some time now. Not much is known about it, other than it will have a new lens. A lot of people think that Fujifilm will name it X100R (a.k.a. X100Roku), but I think they’ll steer clear of any association with the video streaming service, and name it X100Z instead.

The “new lens” part of the upcoming X100-series model is curious, because the X100V, which was the fifth iteration of the series, was the first with a new lens. So why will the X100Z (or whatever Fujifilm names it) have a new lens? The leading theories are:

• The current lens cannot fully resolve 40mp, and the new camera will have the 40mp X-Trans V sensor, so a new lens is necessary to take full advantage of the high-resolution sensor. In my opinion, this makes the most sense, although (if it is the reason) I would be slightly surprised that the current lens cannot resolve 40mp.
• Fujifilm will increase the maximum aperture to f/1.8 or f/1.7 to better compete against the Leica Q3.
• The new camera will have IBIS, and a lens redesign is necessary to accommodate.
• Fujifilm has improved the leaf shutter, which requires a redesign of the lens.
• Fujifilm will eliminate the IR hotspot on the lens, and in turn will sell a full-spectrum version.

There could be some other reasons, but those are the ones I have heard. I highly doubt it will be the last one, although it would be cool if it was. Most likely it is to resolve more resolution, but nobody knows at this point, so it could be anything.

The second upcoming camera will be the GFX100S II. Wait, what? Seriously?!

So, yeah, the GFX lineup will have the 100 II and 100S II. I’m not sure what will be different about the two models, other than the 100S II will be less expensive than the 100 II, so perhaps a little less feature-rich and slightly smaller. Honestly, I couldn’t be less excited about this, but it’s probably because I’m not in the GFX system.

I’m not entirely shocked that the upcoming camera will be the GFX100S II, but it is still a head-scratcher. First, once released, it will mean that 8 out of the last 12 Fujifilm cameras will have been PASM models (2/3rds of them). The only four non-PASM cameras will have been the X-E4 (which has been discontinued and is selling for ridiculous prices), the X-T30 II (which was basically just a firmware update and has been discontinued, although you can still find it if you search hard enough for it), the X-T5, and the X100Z (or whatever Fujifilm calls it). It will also mean that 4 out of the last 11 Fujifilm releases will have been GFX models; however, the GFX50S II has already been discontinued, and presumably the GFX100S will be discontinued very soon. I do think that the GFX system needs a divergent option, as it would seem like the GFX100 II and GFX100S II will be pretty similar to each other. A GFX100R, which would be the successor to the long-discontinued GFX50R, seems like the most obvious choice, but I don’t think Fujifilm plans to release another GFX camera with traditional tactile controls.

My best guess is that the third camera will be the X-Pro4, and that it will be announced sometime in May. I have no inside information (I never do, I get it from Fujirumors like everyone else…), but based on past releases, this makes the most sense to me. I hope that I’m right, because there’s a lot of pent-up demand and eagerness for this camera. If it’s not an X-Pro4, a lot of people will be disappointed.

So where does that leave the X-T40 (or X-T30 III or X-T50 or whatever Fujifilm will name it)? It could and should still happen, but I think Fujifilm is trying to move out of that market segment. They’re focusing more on premium products, and less on lower-tier, as they believe the bottom of the market is continuously drying up. Either Fujifilm makes that series more premium (and in turn more expensive)—kind of like what they did with the X-S20—or they do a very modest update, and it might be the last model in the series. Or it could be that the X-T30 II was the last one. My hunch is that there will be at least one more, perhaps released sometime in the second half of 2024. It certainly could be the third camera and not the X-Pro4—I think a lot of people would be shocked (in a negative way) if that were the case.

Where does this leave the X-E5? I think this line is done. The X-E4 was the last. I truly hope I’m wrong about this, though, because I love the X-E cameras. If one does come, most likely it will be in 2025 and not 2024. Since there’s so much demand for the X-E4 and not much supply, it would make a lot of sense to expedite a successor, but I don’t think that Fujifilm is currently doing so.

What about the X80? The Fujifilm X70 was discontinued in December of 2016, and there has been demand for a successor ever since. I’ve noticed that the demand for an X80 has been building recently, growing larger and more vocal. Certainly the recent sales success of the Ricoh GR III should cause Fujifilm to consider it. I don’t, however, believe that Fujifilm has any current plans to release an X80. If they did, I’d be first in line to buy one!

According to Fujirumors, Fujifilm will announce at least three new cameras in the “first months of” 2024. Let’s take a look at what that might mean.

First, thanks to Fujirumors, we already know what one of the cameras will be: the X100V successor. We’ve known this for awhile, but we don’t know anything about it other than it will have a new lens. We don’t even know what it will be named. But it will be the first of the upcoming three models, most likely announced at the end of January or the beginning of February.

Second, the rest is a mystery. We don’t know anything. And I certainly don’t have any inside information. Zero. I learn the same way that you do. I can only speculate. But looking at trends (both past and current) it’s not too difficult to make some reasonable guesses. Whether these guesses turn out to be correct is something that only time will tell. I’m wrong about these things often enough that whatever I speculate should be taken with a large grain of salt. This is just for fun.

I think it’s a very safe guess that one of the two remaining models will be the much-anticipated and much-hoped-for X-Pro4. When the X-H2s and the X-S20 were announced, it was at the end of May (of 2022 and 2023, respectively). Don’t be surprised if the X-Pro4 is announced next year in the second half of May. I know the phrase “first months of” makes it seem like it will be sooner than May, but I think it simply means first half of the year. While this is all speculation, I think it’s a fairly safe guess, as far as guesses go.

I don’t know what will be different on the X-Pro4 and what will be the same as the X-Pro3, but I do expect there will be one or two surprises. Fujifilm will do something that is both compelling and perhaps even controversial. I hope that it has the 40mp X-Trans V sensor, plus the XPan aspect ratio as an in-camera option. If Fujifilm were to really think outside the box, they’d throw a 50mp APS-H 4:3 aspect ratio sensor inside of it, which would allow for 25mp XPan pictures. I think most Fujinon lenses would cover APS-H, and Fujifilm could do an auto-crop to 40mp 3:2 for those lenses that can’t. I highly doubt they’ll do this, but it would certainly make headlines if they did.

A lot of people are speculating that the third camera will be an X-E5, but I don’t think it will be. Shockingly, the X-E4 was inexplicably discontinued when there was a lot of demand for it, and as a result the used market for that model has gone crazy. It would make a lot of sense for Fujifilm to rush a successor out ASAP, so as to capitalize on the demand. Still, Fujifilm has suggested that the X-E line might done, plus X-E successors typically doesn’t come out until the end of a sensor generation, which means that an X-E5 won’t likely happen until 2025 (if ever). So I would be pretty surprised if this is the third camera.

The most logical option in my opinion is the X-T30 II successor. This line has been a good seller for Fujifilm, and I think they desperately need a budget-friendly model in the lineup. If you look hard enough it is still possible to buy a brand-new X-T30 II, but it’s sold out at a lot of places, and has been for awhile. My guess is that the successor will be largely identical to the X-T30 II, with the same X-Trans IV sensor but with the X-Trans V processor (like the X-S20). It will have some autofocus and video spec improvements, but will be mostly the same exact camera as the X-T30 II. I bet they call it the X-T30 III, and not X-T40 or X-T50. I suspect it will be announced in late-March or early-April, and it doesn’t even get an X-Summit… or if it does, it’s not the headline product.

Since we don’t know for certain what the second and third upcoming cameras will be, what do you hope Fujifilm will announce next year? Really, at this point it could be anything. Let me know in the comments!